Selected Issues in Macroeconomic and Regional Modeling: Romania as an Emerging Country in the EU


Emilian Dobrescu, Bianca Pauna and Corina Saman (Editors)
Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, National Institute for Economic Research (NIER), Romanian Academy, Romania

Series: Economic Issues, Problems and Perspectives
BISAC: BUS039000

This volume brings together eighteen studies on macroeconomic and regional modeling, dedicated to founding of the Macroeconomic Modelling Seminar of the Romanian Academy. All authors participated — at one time or another — in its business activity.

The first section is a collection of studies devoted to research on macroeconomics considered as a branch of economics that characterize the behavior of an economy as a whole. These studies focus on issues raised by modeling and forecasting aggregated indicators, such as industrial production, GDP growth rate, and price indexes (exchange rate, inflation) to understand how the economy functions. Exchange rate is one of the most important macroeconomic variables, especially in recent decades when the openness of the economies has grown due to the fact that development is based on competitiveness and international trade, and thus exposed them to exchange rate risk.
Understanding underlying trends of inflation, focusing on expectations and the interaction among inflation, output growth and respective uncertainties are important problems in emerging countries, where the inflation is considered to be one of the main phenomena of instability of the economic environment, and the uncertainty about future inflation can lead to uncertainty about other economic variables.

These contributions from the researchers affiliated with the Macroeconomic Modeling Seminar gathered in this section propose some perspectives on these issues, emphasizing how econometric techniques can be used to model macroeconomic variables and how to capture uncertainty, structural breaks determined by the integration of Romania into EU, and/or by the latest major economic crises.

Several issues are hence considered, each emphasizing some aspects of the theme proposed: (i) forecasting exchange rate based on monetary fundamentals; (ii) capture uncertainties; (iii) understanding underlying trends of inflation, focusing on expectations; and (iv) assessing forecast accuracy for underlying models.

Performing analysis only at an aggregate level tends to obscure valuable information regarding regional disparities in terms of resources, economic development, socio-economic conditions. Therefore, there is a need to broaden the picture from national to regional in order to identify regional vulnerabilities, which is acknowledged by the articles from the second section of the volume.

The methodological section, the third and final volume, assembles some contributions that address specific issues about: (i) the measurement of jumps in high frequency data; (ii) the application of multiple attribute decision making models; (iii) the identification of the collinearity in regression models; (iv) the usefulness of Onicescu information energy together with the Shannon entropy to measure nominal variables; and (v) methodological advancements in the estimation of potential output. (Imprint: Nova)

Table of Contents

Table of Contents


Section I: Macroeconomic Issues, Modelling and Forecasting

Chapter 1. Long-Run Relationships, Short-Run Dynamics of Exchange Rates based on Monetary Fundamentals: Understanding Forecasting Power
Corina Saman and Cornelia Scutaru (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Romania)

Chapter 2. Forecasting the Growth Rate, the Exchange Rate and the Inflation Rate in Romania: A Comparison of Different Forecasting Models
Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu and Aviral Kumar (CRIEF, University of Poitiers, France, Faculty of Management, IBS Hyderabad, IFHE University, India)

Chapter 3. Non-Parametric Stochastic Simulations to Capture the Uncertainty in the Production of Manufactured Goods for Romania
Andrei Dospinescu and Nicoleta Hornianski (Center for Industrial Economics and Service, National Institute of Economic Research “Costin C. Kiritescu”, Romanian Academy, Romania)

Chapter 4. Phillips Curve in some European Union Countries: A Panel Data Approach
Daniel Ciuiu, Mihaela Simionescu (Technical University of Civil Engineering, Bucharest and Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Romania)

Chapter 5. Money Multiplier and Velocity Playing for Money Neutrality
Liviu Catalin Andrei (National University of Political Sciences and Public Administration, Romania)

Chapter 6. The Evaluation of Manufacturing Production Predictions based on Opinion Survey in Romania
Mihaela Simionescu (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Romania)

Section II: Regional Economic Issues

Chapter 7. Convergence and Divergence in EU: A Nonlinear Approach to Regional Level
Lucian Liviu Albu (Academician, Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Romania)

Chapter 8. Unemployment and Emigration: Regional Analysis for Romania
Dorin Jula and Marius-Nicolae Jula (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy and University Nicolae Titulescu of Bucharest, Romania)

Chapter 9. Competitiveness of the Romanian Regions
Elena Pelinescu, Mioara Iordan and Nona Chilian (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

Chapter 10. Regional and Male-Female Differences in Earnings in Romania
Bianca Pauna and Catalin Pauna (Center for Macroeconomic Modeling, NIER, Romanian Academy and World Bank of Romania)

Chapter 11. A Profile of Unemployment in Romania, at Territorial Level
Cristina Lincaru, Speranta Pirciog (National Scientific Research Institute for Labour and Social Protection, Romania)

Section III: Methodological Issues

Chapter 12. New Methodological Approaches and Assessment of the Potential Gross Domestic Product
Ion Gizdeanu (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Romania)

Chapter 13. Applying Onicescu Informational Energy and Shannon Entropy to Measure Nominal Variables
Stefan ªtefãnescu and Poliana ªtefãnescu (Research Institute for Quality of Life, Romanian Academy and Faculty of Sociology and Social Work, University of Bucharest, Romania)

Chapter 14. Data Forecasting Based on an Adaptive Neural Model
Dumitru-Iulian Nastac (Polytechnic University of Bucharest, Romania)

Chapter 15. Modelling and Measuring Jumps in High Frequency Data
Marius Matei (University of Tasmania, Australia)

Chapter 16. Comparative Analysis of Concentration of Turnover and Gross Pre-tax Profits of the Profitable Companies Resident in Romania, by Major Sections of NACE Rev. 2 Classification of the National Economy
Cezar Mereuta (Center for Macroeconomic Modeling, NIER, Romanian Academy, Romania)

Chapter 17. Definition and Identification of the Types of Collinearity in Multiple Linear Regressions in the Context of OLS Estimations
Florin Pavelescu (Institute of National Economy, Romanian Academy, Romania)

Chapter 18. Applying Multiple Attribute Decision Making Problems to Arrange a Garbage Grave
Romica Trandafir and Ion Vaduva (Technical University of Civil Engineering, Bucharest and University of Bucharest, Romania)

About the Editors


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