Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Foreword
(Douglas MacEachin)
Preface
Introduction: Improving Intelligence Analysis at CIA: Dick Heuer’s Contribution to Intelligence Analysis, pp. 1-12
(Jack Davis)
Part I: OUR MENTAL MACHINERY
Chapter 1. Thinking about Thinking, pp. 15-19
Chapter 2. Perception: Why Can’t We See What is There to Be Seen?, pp. 22-29
Chapter 3. Memory: How Do We Remember What We Know?, pp. 31-43
Part II: TOOLS FOR THINKING
Chapter 4. Strategies for Analytical Judgment: Transcending the Limits of Incomplete Information, pp. 47-63
Chapter 5. Do You Really Need More Information?, pp. 65-75
Chapter 6. Keep an Open Mind, pp. 77-94
Chapter 7. Structuring Analytical Problems, pp. 95-103
Chapter 8. Analysis of Competing Hypothesis, pp. 105-118
Part III: COGNITIVE BIASES
Chapter 9. What Art Cognitive Biases, pp. 121-123
Chapter 10. Biases in Evaluation of Evidence, pp. 125-134
Chapter 11. Biases in Perception of Cause and Effect, pp. 135-152
Chapter 12. Biases in Estimating Probabilities, pp. 153-164
Chapter 13. Hindsight Biases in Evaluation of Intelligence Reporting, pp. 165-175
Part IV: CONCLUSIONS
Chapter 14. Improving Intelligence Analysis, pp. 179-205
References
Index