Table of Contents

ABSTRACT

The development of alternative energy sources is an ambitious strategic priority that requires significant resource support and will determine the main trends and lines of development of the national economy in the future. The article analyses the use of alternative energy sources in the Polish economy. Insufficient (or no) innovation investment in the production of energy from alternative sources can slow down or even make it impossible to ensure the energy independence of countries. In the study, the Holt-Winters model was used as an extension of the Holt method to the three-parametric exponential smoothing of trend forecasts. The modelling of the following global energy transition scenarios has been carried out: conservative (basic), moderate and reform ones. When calculating the implementation of the results of the basic (conservative) scenario of the development of the energy efficiency of the national economy, the assumption that the rate of GDP growth in Poland will be 4% until 2050 was used. This is convenient for using the conservative scenario as a means of comparing the results of the moderate and reform scenarios. The moderate scenario of energy development assumes the existence of conditions of perfect competition in the market. For the case of the introduction of an active state policy regarding the implementation of the energy saving and energy efficiency policy, the results according to the reform scenario were forecasted. With the successful implementation of the reform scenario, energy from renewable sources can solve not only economic problems, but also a number of environmental and social problems. As a result, the shares of the service and agriculture sectors will increase. In the case of the appropriate state energy saving policy, the population of Poland can completely abandon fossil fuels by 2050 according to the reform scenario.

Keywords: alternative energy sources, energy efficiency, social responsibility of business, energy security, business structure