Mohd Aminul Karim, PhD – Professor and Member, Asiatic Society of Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh and Former Professor, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur

Series: Asian Political, Economic and Social Issues
BISAC: POL062000
DOI: https://doi.org/10.52305/YAHK1527

Encircling India from different flanks is seemingly a key strategic objective of China, apart from others. China needs dominance in this part of the world both for economic and strategic reasons. China wants to regain its lost grandeur that it lost during the ‘Century of Humiliation’ on the world stage. Southeast Asia is generally under China’s influence, by means foul or fair. It could even manage the Philippines after it got a verdict in its favor in the international court on an issue related to the South China Sea. China’s economic power is impacting its relations with Southeast Asian countries.

Given the recent conflict between China and India, India is more likely to align itself with the United States. India is a strong partner in the Quadrilateral Dialogue (QUAD), alongside Japan, the United States, and Australia. The QUAD is getting stronger militarily, and the U.S. has been generous to India, especially under former President George W. Bush, who signed a civil nuclear agreement that set India as a nuclear power. India is likely to become a potent naval force in the Indian Ocean, where China is also making advances.

China is now more closely aligned with Russia. The combined forces of China and Russia are a great deterrent to the United States. Added to that, the Bridge and Road Initiative (BRI) is drawing more countries across Asia, Africa, Europe, and the Middle East. The coming decade won’t be divided by an iron curtain but clearly by two blocks vying for influence. China has huge economic and proximity advantage whereas the United States has its military component and potent alliance powers especially with India and Japan. After the pandemic, the turn of history may be different, so the 21st century scenario development may be problematic as it stands now. That said, the book attempts projection and scenario development extrapolating the vexed issues and events between India and China within the broader framework of Indo-Pacific.