Table of Contents

ABSTRACT

The growing energy demand in the Philippines has led to a significant increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and air pollution, raising concerns about environmental sustainability. Despite efforts to expand renewable energy, the country remains largely dependent on fossil fuels, particularly coal and oil, which contribute heavily to pollution. Few studies have examined the long-term effects of different energy sources on the Philippine environment. This study addresses this gap by analyzing the relationship between energy generation and environmental outcomes from 1990 to 2020 using four predictive models: Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Generalized Linear Regression (GLR), Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), and Vector Autoregression (VAR). Results show that fossil fuels—coal, natural gas, and oil—are major drivers of GHG emissions, while renewable sources such as wind and solar are negatively correlated with air pollution. PM2.5 levels have declined over time, particularly during the COVID-19 period, underscoring the influence of policy interventions and economic slowdowns on air quality. The findings highlight the urgent need for stronger government policies to accelerate the shift toward renewable energy and enforce environmental regulations. This research provides valuable insights to support sustainable energy transitions and guide policymakers in balancing economic growth with environmental protection in the Philippines.

Keywords: greenhouse gas emissions, PM2.5 pollution, renewable energy, fossil fuels, predictive modeling