Table of Contents

ABSTRACT

Climate change poses significant challenges worldwide, particularly in regions like North Africa, where environmental and socio-economic systems are highly sensitive to climatic variations. Tunisia, situated at the crossroads of Mediterranean and Saharan influences, is especially vulnerable to the effects of global warming, including shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns. This study explores the complex interactions between carbon dioxide emissions (CO2), temperature, and precipitation in Tunisia, emphasizing the combined effects of global and local climate dynamics. The results demonstrate a notable relationship between CO2 emissions and temperature, particularly within medium-term climate cycles, suggesting that emissions play a significant role in driving local warming. On the other hand, precipitation reacts more gradually to changes in CO2 emissions, with a lag influenced by atmospheric circulation and oceanic processes. Temperature also impacts precipitation over longer climate cycles, with delays shaped by climatic inertia and regional factors. These findings highlight potential threats to Tunisia’s climate resilience, as the slower response of precipitation could intensify water scarcity and negatively affect agriculture. The study calls for improved climate monitoring, adaptive water resource management, and greater public engagement to address these challenges. Additionally, integrating socio-economic factors into climate models and fostering interdisciplinary research are vital for crafting effective strategies to bolster resilience against climate change in Tunisia.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, temperature, precipitation, climate change, wavelet coherence, wavelet correlation, phase angle, Tunisia