Evidence-Based Policy

Evidence-based policy is rare. Robust research takes time, which policymakers do not have. Politicians have prejudices and promises to voters. They cannot wait. Therefore, policy errors are damaging, e.g., the Great Depression, Global Financial Crisis, etc. Policymakers decided to spend trillions of dollars on climate change.

This paper https://lnkd.in/gvC2ukA has 1 million downloads because it says; among abstracts expressing a position on anthropogenic global warming, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming.

Everybody observes global warming. It is real. The evidence, however, comes from models and assumptions. However, we can test the actual data and check if CO2 explains temperature. I tested NOAA and NASA data of the past 60 years. I found that temperature and CO2 do not share a common trend or a common cycle. The variance of trend-adjusted temperature due to CO2 is 30 percent at most. The variance of trend-adjusted CO2 is at least 100 times smaller than that of temperature. Thus, CO2 cannot account for the variations in temperature. Regressing temperature on CO2 yields nothing. Interestingly, adding a constant to the regression changes everything. Thus, something else other than CO2, captured by the constant, explains rising temperature. Scientists should tell us what.